EQ Markets: live macro dashboard
Overview
Risk Appetite Index
Reading the tape...Drivers and 1-year history
1Y history · shaded band ±0.75 (between the risk-on and risk-off lines)
What's driving it · each input's z-score, capped at ±3
Today's read
Reading the tape…
Market bias
Backtesting ES and NQ since 2000…
| Horizon | Lean | Chance higher | Confidence |
|---|
Signals and track record
Its record on past calls, each made before the outcome was known
Models and flows
Macro regime
Reading the tape...Growth inputs
Inflation inputs
Absorption Ratio
—Systemic fragility: how much cross-asset variance one or two factors absorb
Recession Probability, 12M
—NY Fed yield-curve probit on the 3m10y spread
2Y history · dashed line 30%
Trend followers (CTA)
Estimated position · −1 max short, +1 max long · arrows: 1M, 3M, 6M, 12M signals
Where each signal flips, and the forced flow from a ±2σ week
SPX option flow
— Loading the SPX option chain…Dealer gamma by index level · dollars of S&P hedging per 1% move · verticals: spot, the flip and the walls
Flow, walls and the vol curve · open interest from the previous session
Variance Risk Premium
—VIX minus the realized volatility of ES
1Y history · vol points · below zero, the market moves more than options priced
Stock–Bond Correlation
—Do Treasuries still hedge equities?
2Y history · below zero, bonds rally when stocks fall
Calendar
Scheduled events that move index futures, in New York timeData and units
Units and statistics
Each series has a kind that sets its units everywhere. Prices (ES, DXY, USD/JPY…) show % changes and annualized volatility of daily log returns. Rates and spreads show changes in basis points and annualized normal (bp) volatility of daily changes, the convention on rates desks. Levels (VIX, NFCI…) show point changes. Volatility is both a 21-day sample standard deviation and RiskMetrics EWMA, σ²t = λσ²t−1 + (1−λ)r²t−1, λ = 0.94, annualized by √252 (√365 for Bitcoin, √52 for weekly series). Range position is the mid-rank percentile of today's value against the prior year, plus a robust z-score, (x − median) / (1.4826 · MAD), which is not distorted by the fat tails and spikes that dominate stress series.
ES and NQ
Yahoo's ES=F and NQ=F are continuous front-month contracts that jump 1–3% when the next contract takes over at each quarterly expiry. For every calculation, the sessions from 8 before to 1 after each quarterly expiry (which covers the CME roll date) use the cash index's return (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100) instead, and the price path is rebuilt back from today's price, so the latest price is unchanged. Returns then match what holding the futures earned.
Other series
Curve spreads use H.15 closes on both legs, never a live quote against a stale one. Credit is the ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads (Gilchrist & Zakrajšek 2012). The term premium is the Kim–Wright estimate from the Fed Board. NFCI (Chicago Fed) and STLFSI4 (St. Louis Fed) are weekly composites centred on zero. Yen positioning is CFTC Legacy non-commercial net futures, with a robust z-score against three years. Carry-to-vol divides the Fed–BOJ gap by EWMA-annualized USD/JPY vol, a free proxy for the implied vol used in practice. This is decision support, not a trading signal.